Using Machine Learning to Predict Business Survival in COVID-19

The global recession due to the pandemic has knocked the business landscape and brought the world to its knees. There were a number of renowned companies that made the headlines for being the top industry hard hits. Nonetheless, there were businesses that survived this pandemic and navigated the COVID complexities so effectively that it tipped the scales in their favor. We attempt to study the factors that helped these businesses masterfully work their way through the conundrums of coronavirus pandemic. We first build a dataset that entailed information pertinent to businesses and relevant COVID-related information that was sourced from Yelp and other platforms. We used a variety of classifiers to make predictions about the survival of these businesses followed by that after assessing their performance through varied methods. The model efficiency was classified based on several rating techniques to evaluate both underperforming and profitable businesses. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Using Machine Learning to Predict Business Survival in COVID-19

The global recession due to the pandemic has knocked the business landscape and brought the world to its knees. There were a number of renowned companies that made the headlines for being the top industry hard hits. Nonetheless, there were businesses that survived this pandemic and navigated the COVID complexities so effectively that it tipped the scales in their favor. We attempt to study the factors that helped these businesses masterfully work their way through the conundrums of coronavirus pandemic. We first build a dataset that entailed information pertinent to businesses and relevant COVID-related information that was sourced from Yelp and other platforms. We used a variety of classifiers to make predictions about the survival of these businesses followed by that after assessing their performance through varied methods. The model efficiency was classified based on several rating techniques to evaluate both underperforming and profitable businesses. © 2023, The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Nature Singapore Pte Ltd.

Machine Learning Approaches to Predict Covid-19 Severity

Machine learning has been successfully used in the medical field for the last few years. The emergence of covid-19 pandemic has seen researchers using machine learning approaches to detect and predict whether a patient has been infected by covid-19 or not. Cough and fevers are the two most likely symptoms of the covid-19. In this paper, the journals regarding the prediction of covid-19 severity based on symptoms have been discussed. Several researchers have established deep learning-based models for the prediction. They have used the test data from the hospitals for their research process. The KNN models, ANN models, and SVM models have been discussed. The limitations of the past research process have been evaluated to be the biased test data set and missing values. The methodology that was used for the research process has been described. Mixed method of data collection was used for the research processes. The secondary data was collected from reliable sources for this research process. Kaggle website was used to collect the test data regarding the covid-19 patients. The data analysis was done on the weka tool using various machine learning models. Copyright © 2022, Anka Publishers. All rights reserved.

INFECTIOUS PATHOLOGIES AFFECTING KIDNEY TRANSPLANT RECEPIENTS: A SINGLE CENTRE PROSPECTIVE OBSERVATIONAL STUDY

Introduction: Kidney transplant recipients (KTRs) have to receive lifelong immunosuppressive therapy. Consequently they are predisposed to life threatening infections. Even though the data on infectious pathologies have been described in KTRs, the data on long term sequalae of such diseases is lacking. Methods: In this single high volume centre we followed up 100 KTRs, who presented to us with signs of infections. Patients presenting with acute drug reaction or toxicity, malignancy, and auto-immune disorders were excluded. Results: Majority of the patients were male (80%) with a median age of 47years and the median duration of follow up is 34 months. Comorbidites were present in majority of patients in the form of hypertension (83%), Diabetes (11%), heart disease (7%). Amongst infections prior to kidney transplant, TB (28%), HCV (11%) and HBV (1%) were the predominant. 33% patients had acute graft dysfunction, which on biopsy showed mostly ATN and was managed conservatively. However one patient had features of CMV viremia, which was managed with iv Valganciclovir. During follow up 57% of patients presented to us with at least one episode of infection, while 24% patients had 3 more episodes of infection during the follow up period. First episode of infection occurred after a median duration of 10 months. The most common infections were UTI (40%), acute gastroenteritis (35%), CMV infections (10%),pyelonephritis (5%), bacterial pneumonia (5%) protozoal infections (2%), COVID (2%). Most of the infections were managed successfully however 10% patients had graft dysfunction and are on maintenance hemodialysis. Conclusions: Infections in KTRs are a serious debilitating condition which affect graft function. Prompt and aggressive treatment is warranted for graft survival. No conflict of interest

Perception of farmers on the impact of lockdown due to Covid-19 on agriculture and oil palm cultivation in the state of Andhra Pradesh, India

A study was conducted to find the impact of lockdown due to the pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on agriculture, in general, and on oil palm cultivation, in specific. Results revealed that the majority of the farmers contacted had 26-30 years of farming experience, were between 31-60 years of age, were educated up to high school level, with an average of four family members and possessed medium landholdings. The crops grown by these farmers include oil palm, maize, coconut, paddy, cocoa and vegetables. The majority of them had irrigated dry lands. All the farmers were aware about the reasons for the lockdown due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Areas where lockdown impact was visible on agriculture, either directly or indirectly, include labour availability, high cost of labour, harvesting, transport, and market prices. Resources affected due to lockdown were labour, fertilizers, harvesting, transport etc. All cultural practices were adopted in oil palm. The majority of the respondents perceived that oil palm was not affected compared to other crops during the lockdown;they opined to have obtained a good market price for oil palm during the lockdown period. Most of them informed that they received oil palm cultivation related messages sent by ICAR-IIOPR, Pedavegi. They perceived to be aware of the technologies during the lockdown period. Messages (SMS) on oil palm irrigation, cultivation practices, and fertigation were adopted. The need for Government assistance during the lockdown period was felt in the following aspects for different crops, viz., marketing, cultivation assistance, and transport. Farmers perceived that lockdown might have long-term implications due to the non-availability of labour for harvesting crops. It is evident from the study that crops affected severely during the lockdown period require long term strategies to mitigate the problems faced. Farmers must be supported with minimum support price (MSP), transport facilities and ad hoc strategies to sell their products through the government purchase mechanism. A need for monitoring the increase in the prices of agricultural inputs was also felt. © 2022 Indian Society for Plantation Crops. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of Factors for Effective Distribution of Covid-19 Vaccines

Purpose: The government of India has initiated the Covid-19 Vaccination drive from early January 2021. Vaccination is identified to be best option to protect the people across the globe. However, owing to fast wide spread of the Covid-19, the Vaccine Distribution is a major challenge owing various issues like temperature control, infrastructure, hesitancy, geographical diversity, and other critical factors. Various research is carried out globally to understand and study the Vaccine Distribution issues based on the respective country issues and factors. Research Design, Data, and Methodology: This research paper attempts to explore prominent factors that could be taken up on priority for better and effective vaccination program. The study tries to rank various factors and sub-factors affecting vaccine distribution in India. AHP methodology based on feedback from 22 experts from the Vaccine industry has been deployed to get the desired results. Result: The results show that factors vaccine approval process, geographical prioritization, power supply, infrastructure maintenance costs for vaccine storage, and vaccine pricing are the prominent factors of effective vaccination in the country. Conclusion: The role and need for district-level health officers towards vaccine storage has been brought forward. A long-term effective vaccination policy is needed for optimum vaccine distribution. © 2022. The Author(s). All Rights Reserved.

MARKED CHANGES ARE SEEN IN THE SMALL BOWEL MICROBIOME AS A RESULT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC

SARS-CoV-2 has had a profound impact on the human population in the last 24 months. This includes dramatic changes in lifestyle, hygiene, and altered food sources/consumption patterns, which could directly impact the small bowel microbiome on an individual and perhaps even at a population level. To date, this has not been examined. Here, we compare small bowel microbial profiles in subjects before SARS-CoV-2 and intra-pandemic. Methods: The REIMAGINE study is a large-scale study using validated methods for duodenal aspirate collection and microbiome sequencing in subjects undergoing upper endoscopy. Subjects were divided into 2 groups: pre-pandemic, from February 2019 to March 2020;and intrapandemic, from April 2021 to September 2021. Groups were matched for gender, age, and BMI. Duodenal aspirates were collected, and microbial DNA was isolated using the MagAttract PowerSoilDNA Kit. V3 and V4 libraries were sequenced on a MiSeq. Reference-based Operational Taxonomic Unit clustering was performed using SILVA v132 database. Taxonomic analysis was performed with CLC Microbial Genomics Module v.2.5 and MicrobiomeAnalyst, and duodenal microbial alpha- and beta-diversity indices were calculated. Significance was determined by Wilcox test. Results: In total 94 subjects were included in the analysis. The overall duodenal microbiome profile (beta-diversity) of intra-pandemic subjects (n=38, mean age= 51 ± 18, mean BMI =23.9 ± 4.7) was significantly different from pre-pandemic subjects (n=56, mean age= 51 ± 15, mean BMI = 25.24 ± 4.9)(p<0.002, Fig1A), with no significant changes in duodenal microbial alpha diversity between groups (Fig1B). Significant duodenal microbial taxonomic differences were identified between groups, including changes in the relative abundance (RA) of 2 phyla, 3 classes, 6 orders, 4 families and 23 genera (Fig2A). At the phylum level, Actinobacteria RA was significantly decreased in the intra vs. the pre group (FC=-1.99, P=9.83E-8, Fig2B). Additionally, at the genus level, RA of Rothia (P= 6.85E-7), Pseudomonas (P=0.0376), and Escherichia (P=0.0092) were significantly decreased in the intra group (Fig2A). Of note, the phylum Deinococcus (P=0.0016) was increased in the intra vs. the pre group (Fig2B). Conclusion: In this first study examining the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the small bowel microbiome, we show substantial changes in microbial profiles intra-pandemic as compared to pre-pandemic. The duodenal microbiome of intra-pandemic subjects was associated with less disrupter bacteria (Escherichia and Pseudomonas), commonly associated with GI disorders. In contrast, Deinococcus phylum was increased intra-pandemic. This phylum includes organisms resistant to sanitation and increased in the nasal passage of people during the pandemic. The short and long term impact of these changes on human health require further study.(Figure Presented)

Colouring Properties of Plant Pigments on Fabric: Survey on Preference for Antimicrobial Naturally Dyed Mask

Synthetic dyes have high fastness property and are stable under diverse conditions but over time it is seen that they are toxic to the environment and some are carcinogenic. Dyes derived from natural sources like tartrazine, cochineal red and sunset yellow may cause allergies when used alone or in a combination. Some of the colourants that had been approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use in various industries like food, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics are found to promote cancer. The purpose of the present study is to extract natural dyes from peel of fruits and vegetables, flowers and study the effect of different mordanting techniques (pre-mordanting, simultaneous mordanting, post-mordanting) on dyeing, The extracts were applied as direct dyes in the presence of mordants. Dyeing of cotton cloth was performed using extracts of Pomegranate peel (Punica granatum), Orange peel (Citrus sinensis), Marigold flowers (Tagetes erecta), Kidney bean seed coat (Phaseolus vulgaris). Colour strength, shade and fastness properties of the dyes have been tested. In pre and post mordanting, colour change was observed in Marigold and Pomegranate. In simultaneous mordanting, colour change was seen in Marigold, Pomegranate, Orange peel and Kidney bean. The obtained results have shown the dyeing potential of organic wastes as a source for cotton dyeing. Using waste as a source of natural dyes will help in reducing the environmental pollution. Our studies on market research for demand led us to the conclusion that there is demand for comfortable environmental friendly mask having increased functional properties.

COVID-19 vaccines: A ray of hope

Coronavirus-induced disease (COVID-19) has emerged as a dreaded pandemic which is a threat to the entire world. It all began in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread over the world. It is caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) which is an enveloped virus single-stranded, positive-sensed ribonucleic acid virus that enters the host cell lungs via endocytosis or membrane fusion utilizing the ACE-2 receptor. The virus particles release and replicate into new progenies, which cause cytokine storm in some cases by releasing pro-inflammatory mediators into the lungs. It dominantly manifests as SARS-CoV-2 and eventually involves all systems of human body. As of July 15, 2021, approximately 189 million COVID-19-infected cases have been reported worldwide, with over 4 million individuals dying as a result. In India, so far there are approximately 31 million infected cases and 4 lakhs human lives have been lost. Various antivirals, antibiotics, corticosteroids, and other adjuvant therapies were being experimentally employed for COVID-19 prophylaxis and treatment. Many pharmaceutical companies have worked on COVID-19 vaccinations to stop the virus progression and transmission. In several countries, including India, the United States, and Russia, the COVID-19 vaccine has already been approved for human use. India has been able to produce two vaccines, namely Covaxin and Covishield, and launches a massive vaccination drive for people above 18 years adults. Till now, approximately 304 million subjects have been partially vaccinated and 73 million subjects are fully vaccinated. Various other COVID-19 vaccines are in Phase 3 of clinical development. Vaccines against COVID are a major tool against the progression and prevention of COVID-19.

Clinical spectrum of COVID-19 cases and their correlation with S.LDH levels - an observational study from southeast Rajasthan

Introduction and Background: The novel coronavirus or commonly referred to as the covid-19, has been a threat to the global health as well as the world economy. It all started from the Wuhan city of china in December 2019, when a cluster of pneumonia cases with severe acute respiratory symptoms were reported with unknown etiology, majority of cases linked to the exposure to wholesale seafood market in Hunan. On January 7th, after the nomenclature of this causative agent was done as Corona Virus Disease 2019, COVID19, the struggles to combat and try to control this illness have only so far been less helpful as more and more countries have exponential proportion of cases. On the other side of the illness are the efforts being done constantly to study the characteristics of the virus, newer treatment agents, expanding testing facilities and finally to find a vaccine as soon as possible. Although most human coronavirus infections are mild, the epidemics of the two beta corona viruses, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV)20-24 have caused more than 10 000 cumulative cases in the past two decades, with mortality rates of 10% for SARS-CoV and 37% for MERS-CoV. The 2019-nCoV has features typical of the coronavirus family and was classified in the beta coronavirus. Four viruses - (HCoV 229E, NL63, OC43, and HKU1) are endemic globally and account for 10% to 30% of upper respiratory tract infections in adults and typically cause common cold symptoms in immunocompetent individuals. Currently, the patients infected by the novel coronavirus are the main source of infection. Although asymptomatic infected can also be a source. Transmission of the virus happens mainly through respiratory droplets and close contact (defined as that within 1m distance and lasting for several minutes). A possibility of aerosol transmission in a relatively closed environment for a long-time exposure to high concentrations has also not been denied as of yet. Since the information regarding the illness, the treatment principles have been in constant scrutiny and have been changed dynamically as we get to know more about the virus, studies of covid19 cases would be a major stepping stone in acquiring maximum if not hundred percent knowledge about covid19. Materials and Methods: An observational retrospective case study was done for a fixed duration of a month i.e from 23/05/2020 to 23/06/2020. Patients satisfying the inclusion and exclusion criteria were included under the study. Inclusion criteria:Age >40yrs with symptoms of severe acute respiratory Illness (screened as per the symptom suggestive of acute respiratory illness, mohfw.gov.in) Asymptomatic aged >40yrs with comorbidities and in direct contact with confirmed cases of covid19. Exclusion criteria:Immunocompromised patients. Pregnant patients. Autoimmune disease patientsHistory of psychiatric illnessThe patients were isolated in different wards based on the presence or absence and severity of symptoms. Detailed history, general and systemic examination and investigations were done. Samples of throat and nasal swab were sent for RT-PCR assay of covid19 testing done by Real time reverse transcriptase based PCR. Regular monitoring of patients was done. Treatment given based on the most recent guidelines update by the ICMR and made available by the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare. Statistical Analysis: Data was analysed by using SPSS 22.0 (trial version) software and T test, Chi-square Pierson's correlation and other appropriate statistical test will be used to analyse the data. Aims & Objectives: To understand the symptomatology, disease course and complications of covid19.To study the changes in laboratory parameters in association with severity of illness.To study the effect of presence of comorbidities with respect to the outcome of covid19Ethical Considerations: Since it being a retrospective observational study, complete patient confidentiality was being maintained while collecting and analysing the data as w

Outcome of Children Admitted With SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Experiences From a Pediatric Public Hospital

OBJECTIVE: To study clinical characteristics and outcome of children with admitted to a paediatric hospital in Mumbai, India. METHODS: Review of medical records of 969 children admitted between 19 March and 7 August, 2020, to assess the clinico-demographic characteristics, disease severity and factors predicting outcome in COVID-19 children. Variables were compared between children who were previously healthy (Group I) and those with co-morbidity (Group II). RESULTS: 123 (71 boys) children with median (IQR) age of 3 (0.7- 6) years were admitted, of which 47 (38%) had co-morbidities. 39 (32 %) children required intensive care and 14 (11.4%) died. Male sex, respiratory manifestation, oxygen saturation <94%;at admission, mechanical ventilation, inotrope, hospital stay of <10 days were independent predictors of mortality. Oxygen saturation <94% at admission (OR 35.9, 95% CI 1.5-856) and hospital stay <10 days (OR 9.1, 95% CI 1.04-99.1) were significant. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 in children with co-morbidities causes severe disease. Association of mortality with oxygen saturation by pulse oximeter <94% on admission, and hospital stay <10 days, needs further evaluation.

Outcome of Children Admitted With SARS-CoV-2 Infection: Experiences From a Pediatric Public Hospital

OBJECTIVE: To study clinical characteristics and outcome of children with admitted to a paediatric hospital in Mumbai, India. METHODS: Review of medical records of 969 children admitted between 19 March and 7 August, 2020, to assess the clinico-demographic characteristics, disease severity and factors predicting outcome in COVID-19 children. Variables were compared between children who were previously healthy (Group I) and those with co-morbidity (Group II). RESULT: 123 (71 boys) children with median (IQR) age of 3 (0.7- 6) years were admitted, of which 47 (38%) had co-morbidities. 39 (32 %) children required intensive care and 14 (11.4%) died. Male sex, respiratory manifestation, oxygen saturation <94% at admission, mechanical ventilation, inotrope, hospital stay of <10 days were independent predictors of mortality. Oxygen saturation <94% at admission (OR 35.9, 95% CI 1.5-856) and hospital stay <10 days (OR 9.1, 95% CI 1.04-99.1) were significant. CONCLUSION: COVID-19 in children with co-morbidities causes severe disease. Association of mortality with oxygen saturation by pulse oximeter <94% on admission, and hospital stay <10 days, needs further evaluation.

Patient experiences of fertility clinic closure during the COVID-19 pandemic: appraisals, coping and emotions.

STUDY QUESTION: What are appraisals, coping strategies and emotional reactions of patients to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) fertility clinic closures? SUMMARY ANSWER: Clinic closure was appraised as stressful due to uncertainty and threat to the attainability of the parenthood goal but patients were able to cope using strategies that fit the uncertainty of the situation. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: Psychological research on COVID-19 suggests that people are more anxious than historical norms and moderately to extremely upset about fertility treatment cancellation owing to COVID-19. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: The study was of cross-sectional design, comprising a mixed-methods, English language, anonymous, online survey posted from April 9 to 21 to social media. Eligibility criteria were being affected by COVID-19 fertility clinic closure, 18 years of age or older and able to complete the survey in English. In total, 946 people clicked on the survey link, 76 did not consent, 420 started but did not complete the survey and 450 completed (48% completion, 446 women, four men). PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Overall 74.7% (n = 336) of respondents were residents in the UK with an average age of 33.6 years (SD = 4.4) and average years trying to conceive, 3.5 years (SD = 2.22). The survey comprised quantitative questions about the intensity of cognitive appraisals and emotions about clinic closure, and ability to cope with clinic closure. Open-text questions covered their understanding of COVID-19 and its effect on reproductive health and fertility plans, concerns and perceived benefits of clinic closure, and knowledge about closure. Sociodemographic information was collected. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used on quantitative data. Thematic qualitative analysis (inductive coding) was performed on the textual data from each question. Deductive coding grouped themes from each question into meta-themes related to cognitive stress and coping theory. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Most patients (81.6%, n = 367) had tests or treatments postponed, with these being self (41.3%, n = 186) or publicly (46.4%, n = 209) funded. Patients appraised fertility clinic closure as having potential for a more negative than positive impact on their lives, and to be very or extremely uncontrollable and stressful (P ≤ 0.001). Most reported a slight to moderate ability to cope with closure. Data saturation was achieved with all open-text questions, with 33 broad themes identified and four meta-themes linked to components of the cognitive stress and coping theory. First, participants understood clinic closure was precautionary due to unknown effects of COVID-19 but some felt clinic closure was unfair relative to advice about getting pregnant given to the public. Second, closure was appraised as a threat to attainability of the parenthood goal largely due to uncertainty of the situation (e.g. re-opening, effect of delay) and intensification of pre-existing hardships of fertility problems (e.g. long time waiting for treatment, history of failed treatment). Third, closure taxed personal coping resources but most were able to cope using thought-management (e.g. distraction, focusing on positives), getting mentally and physically fit for next treatments, strengthening their social network, and keeping up-to-date. Finally, participants reported more negative than positive emotions (P ≤ 0.001) and, almost all participants reported stress, worry and frustration at the situation, while some expressed anger and resentment at the unfairness of the situation. Overall, 11.8% were not at all able to cope, with reports of intense feelings of hopelessness and deteriorating well-being and mental health. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: The survey captures patient reactions at a specific point in time, during lockdown and before clinics announced re-opening. Participants were self-selected (e.g. UK residents, women, 48% starting but not completing the survey), which may affect generalisability. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Fertility stakeholders (e.g. clinics, patient support groups, regulators, professional societies) need to work together to address the great uncertainty from COVID-19. This goal can be met proactively by setting up transparent processes for COVID-19 eventualities and signposting to information and coping resources. Future psychological research priorities should be on identifying patients at risk of distress with standardised measures and developing digital technologies appropriate for the realities of fertility care under COVID-19. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): University funded research. Outside of the submitted work, Prof. J.B. reports personal fees from Merck KGaA, Merck AB, Theramex, Ferring Pharmaceuticals A/S; grants from Merck Serono Ltd; and that she is co-developer of the Fertility Quality of Life (FertiQoL) and MediEmo apps. Outside of the submitted work, Dr R.M. reports personal or consultancy fees from Manchester Fertility, Gedeon Richter, Ferring and Merck. Outside of the submitted work, Dr S.G. reports consultancy fees from Ferring Pharmaceuticals A/S, Access Fertility and SONA-Pharm LLC, and grants from Merck Serono Ltd. The other authors declare no conflicts of interest. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.